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Research

Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study

Sharmistha Mishra, Linwei Wang, Huiting Ma, Kristy C.Y. Yiu, J. Michael Paterson, Eliane Kim, Michael J. Schull, Victoria Pequegnat, Anthea Lee, Lisa Ishiguro, Eric Coomes, Adrienne Chan, Mark Downing, David Landsman, Sharon Straus and Matthew Muller
September 22, 2020 8 (3) E593-E604; DOI: https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20200093
Sharmistha Mishra
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MD PhD
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Linwei Wang
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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Huiting Ma
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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Kristy C.Y. Yiu
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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J. Michael Paterson
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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Eliane Kim
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MPH
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Michael J. Schull
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MD MSc
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Victoria Pequegnat
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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Anthea Lee
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MMA
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Lisa Ishiguro
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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Eric Coomes
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MD
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Adrienne Chan
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MD MPH
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Mark Downing
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MD
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David Landsman
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
BSc
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Sharon Straus
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
MD MSc
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Matthew Muller
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
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Article Information

vol. 8 no. 3 E593-E604
DOI 
https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20200093
PubMed 
32963024
History 
  • Published online September 22, 2020.
Copyright & Usage 
Copyright 2020, Joule Inc. or its licensors

Author Information

  1. Sharmistha Mishra, MD PhD,
  2. Linwei Wang, MSc,
  3. Huiting Ma, MSc,
  4. Kristy C.Y. Yiu, MSc,
  5. J. Michael Paterson, MSc,
  6. Eliane Kim, MPH,
  7. Michael J. Schull, MD MSc,
  8. Victoria Pequegnat, MSc,
  9. Anthea Lee, MMA,
  10. Lisa Ishiguro, MSc,
  11. Eric Coomes, MD,
  12. Adrienne Chan, MD MPH,
  13. Mark Downing, MD,
  14. David Landsman, BSc,
  15. Sharon Straus, MD MSc,
  16. Matthew Muller, MD PhD
  1. Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine (Mishra, Coomes, Chan, Muller); MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (Mishra, Wang, Ma, Yiu, Landsman), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Paterson, Schull), University of Toronto; ICES (Paterson, Kim, Schull, Ishiguro); Decision Support (Pequegnat, Lee), Unity Health Toronto; Division of Infectious Diseases (Chan), Sunnybrook Health Sciences, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Downing), St. Joseph’s Health Centre, Unity Health Toronto; Department of Medicine (Straus), St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto; Infection Prevention and Control (Muller), St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
  1. Correspondence to: Sharmistha Mishra, sharmistha.mishra{at}utoronto.ca
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Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study
Sharmistha Mishra, Linwei Wang, Huiting Ma, Kristy C.Y. Yiu, J. Michael Paterson, Eliane Kim, Michael J. Schull, Victoria Pequegnat, Anthea Lee, Lisa Ishiguro, Eric Coomes, Adrienne Chan, Mark Downing, David Landsman, Sharon Straus, Matthew Muller
Jul 2020, 8 (3) E593-E604; DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20200093

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Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study
Sharmistha Mishra, Linwei Wang, Huiting Ma, Kristy C.Y. Yiu, J. Michael Paterson, Eliane Kim, Michael J. Schull, Victoria Pequegnat, Anthea Lee, Lisa Ishiguro, Eric Coomes, Adrienne Chan, Mark Downing, David Landsman, Sharon Straus, Matthew Muller
Jul 2020, 8 (3) E593-E604; DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20200093
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