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Changes in family medicine visits across sociodemographic groups after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study

Ellen Stephenson, Braden O’Neill, Jessica Gronsbell, Debra A. Butt, Noah Crampton, Catherine Ji, Sumeet Kalia, Christopher Meaney and Karen Tu
June 15, 2021 9 (2) E651-E658; DOI: https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20210005
Ellen Stephenson
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
PhD
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Braden O’Neill
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
MD DPhil
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Jessica Gronsbell
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
PhD
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Debra A. Butt
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
MD MSc
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Noah Crampton
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
MD MSc
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Catherine Ji
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
MD MSc
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Sumeet Kalia
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
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Christopher Meaney
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
MSc
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Karen Tu
Department of Family and Community Medicine (Stephenson, O’Neill, Butt, Crampton, Ji, Kalia, Meaney, Tu), University of Toronto; MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions (O’Neill), St. Michael’s Hospital; North York General Hospital (Tu); Department of Statistical Sciences (Gronsbell), University of Toronto; Scarborough Health Network (Butt); Toronto Western Hospital Family Health Team (Crampton, Ji, Tu), University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.
MD MSc
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    Figure 1:

    Cohort selection process. Note: EMR = electronic medical record.

  • Figure 2:
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    Figure 2:

    Change in weekly visit volume (total number of visits per 1000 patients in cohort), stratified by patient age, sex and neighbourhood characteristics (income, material deprivation and ethnic concentration). The shaded grey area indicates the 2020 pandemic period (Mar. 14 to June 30) and corresponding period in 2019. A reduction in visit volume is observed during the Christmas and New Year holiday period. Some clinics operate at reduced capacity or close during this period such that it is not unusual for visit volume to be substantially reduced.

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    Table 1:

    Characteristics of patients with and without a family physician visit between Jan. 1, 2019, and June 30, 2020

    CharacteristicNo. (%) of patients*p value
    All patients
    n = 372 272
    Patients with 1 or more visits
    n = 276 144
    Patients without any visits
    n = 96 128
    Age, yr, mean ± SD43.07 ± 23.1844.95 ± 23.3837.66 ± 21.71p < 0.001
    Age groups, yrp < 0.001
     ≤ 1867 481 (18.1)46 150 (16.7)21 331 (22.2)
     19–3471 168 (19.1)46 386 (16.8)24 782 (25.8)
     34–4978 217 (21.0)55 997 (20.3)22 220 (23.1)
     50–6480 885 (21.7)64 434 (23.3)16 451 (17.1)
     ≥ 6574 521 (20.0)63 177 (22.9)11 344 (11.8)
    Sexp < 0.001
     Female205 877 (55.3)160 171 (58.0)45 706 (47.6)
     Male166 395 (44.7)115 973 (42.0)50 422 (52.5)
    Income quintilesp < 0.001
     1 (lowest income)68 948 (18.5)49 622 (18.0)19 326 (20.1)
     258 900 (15.8)43 892 (15.9)15 008 (15.6)
     361 686 (16.6)46 214 (16.7)15 472 (16.1)
     472 723 (19.5)54 506 (19.7)18 217 (19.0)
     5 (highest income)100 665 (27.0)76 048 (27.5)24 617 (25.6)
     Missing9350 (2.5)5862 (2.1)3488 (3.6)
    Material deprivation quintilesp < 0.001
     1 (least deprived)95 042 (25.5)72 057 (26.1)22 985 (23.9)
     286 220 (23.2)64 671 (23.4)21 549 (22.4)
     368 833 (18.5)51 536 (18.6)17 297 (18.0)
     456 648 (15.2)42 270 (15.3)14 378 (15.0)
     5 (most deprived)55 117 (14.8)39 054 (14.2)16 063 (16.7)
     Missing10 412 (2.8)6556 (2.4)3856 (4.0)
    Ethnic concentration quintilesp < 0.001
     1 (least diverse)35 638 (9.6)26 918 (9.8)8720 (9.1)
     248 074 (12.9)35 979 (13.0)12 095 (12.6)
     368 546 (18.4)51 473 (18.6)17 073 (17.8)
     496 757 (26.0)72 948 (26.4)23 809 (24.8)
     5 (most diverse)112 845 (30.3)82 270 (29.8)30 575 (31.8)
     Missing10 412 (2.8)6556 (2.4)3856 (4.0)
    • Note: SD = standard deviation.

    • ↵* Unless indicated otherwise.

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    Table 2:

    Year-over-year change in family physician visitor rate and visit volume from Mar. 14 to June 30 in 2019 and 2020

    VariableVisitor rate per 1000 patientsVisit volume per 1000 patients
    2019 rate2020 rateDifference (95% CI)Change, %2019 volume2020 volumeDifference (95% CI)Change, %
    All patients392257−135 (−137 to −134)−34.5644503−140 (−145 to −136)−21.8
    By patient sex
     Female425285−140 (−142 to −137)−32.9715576−139 (−146 to −133)−19.5
     Male352222−130 (−133 to −127)−37.0555414−141 (−147 to −135)−25.5
    By patient age, yr
     ≤ 18301169−132 (−137 to −128)−44.0459292−167 (−175 to −158)−36.3
     19–34305214−91 (−95 to −87)−29.7495422−73 (−83 to −63)−14.7
     34–49352239−114 (−118 to −110)−32.3568470−98 (−108 to −89)−17.3
     50–64434288−146 (−150 to −142)−33.6703560−143 (−152 to −133)−20.3
     ≥ 65554362−192 (−196 to −188)−34.6968746−222 (−234 to −211)−23.0
    By income quintile
     1 (lowest income)404270−134 (−138 to −130)−33.2715569−146 (−157 to −135)−20.4
     2405268−137 (−142 to −133)−33.9682538−144 (−156 to −133)−21.2
     3396260−136 (−141 to −132)−34.4644506−138 (−149 to −127)−21.4
     4385249−137 (−141 to −132)−35.4617471−145 (−155 to −136)−23.6
     5 (highest income)387250−137 (−140 to −133)−35.3601468−133 (−141 to −125)−22.1
     Missing317212−106 (−117 to −95)−33.3544415−128 (−156 to −101)−23.6
    By material deprivation quintile
     1 (least deprived)395258−137 (−141 to −133)−34.6631504−127 (−135 to −118)−20.1
     2387250−137 (−141 to −133)−35.5613474−139 (−148 to −130)−22.6
     3394257−137 (−141 to −132)−34.7637489−149 (−159 to −139)−23.4
     4405266−139 (−144 to −134)−34.3683527−156 (−168 to −145)−22.9
     5 (most deprived)395265−130 (−135 to −125)−32.9697560−138 (−150 to −125)−19.7
     Missing321212−108 (−119 to −98)−33.8558411−147 (−172 to −121)−26.3
    By ethnic concentration quintile
     1 (least diverse)401269−132 (−138 to −126)−32.9649503−146 (−158 to −130)−22.5
     2387256−131 (−136 to −126)−33.9623469−154 (−163 to −140)−24.7
     3386255−131 (−135 to −126)−33.9614487−127 (−135 to −115)−20.7
     4398260−139 (−142 to −135)−34.8642507−135 (−141 to −123)−21.0
     5 (most diverse)397257−141 (−144 to −137)−35.4678525−153 (−159 to −142)−22.6
     Missing321212−108 (−119 to −98)−33.8558411−147 (−172 to −121)−26.3
    • Note: CI = confidence interval.

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CMAJ Open: 9 (2)
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Changes in family medicine visits across sociodemographic groups after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study
Ellen Stephenson, Braden O’Neill, Jessica Gronsbell, Debra A. Butt, Noah Crampton, Catherine Ji, Sumeet Kalia, Christopher Meaney, Karen Tu
Apr 2021, 9 (2) E651-E658; DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20210005

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Changes in family medicine visits across sociodemographic groups after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study
Ellen Stephenson, Braden O’Neill, Jessica Gronsbell, Debra A. Butt, Noah Crampton, Catherine Ji, Sumeet Kalia, Christopher Meaney, Karen Tu
Apr 2021, 9 (2) E651-E658; DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20210005
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