Predictors of unplanned index hospital admission
| Covariate | OR (95% CI)* | |
|---|---|---|
| High-cost users | Non–high-cost users | |
| Age, yr | ||
| 75–84 v. 66–74 | 1.33 (1.29–1.37) | 1.50 (1.42–1.58) |
| ≥ 85 v. 66–74 | 1.65 (1.60–1.71) | 2.53 (2.39–2.69) |
| Male sex | 1.04 (1.01–1.06) | 1.06 (1.01–1.1) |
| Low income status | 1.04 (1.01–1.08) | 1.06 (1.00–1.12) |
| Rurality Index for Ontario score | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 1.01 (1.01–1.01) |
| Recent immigrant | 0.98 (0.90–1.06) | 0.72 (0.62–0.84) |
| Malignant disease | 0.81 (0.79–0.83) | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) |
| Hypertension | 1.09 (1.06–1.12) | 1.08 (1.03–1.13) |
| Congestive heart failure | 1.36 (1.32–1.41) | 1.47 (1.37–1.57) |
| History of myocardial infarction | 1.21 (1.16–1.27) | 1.43 (1.32–1.55) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1.26 (1.22–1.29) | 1.27 (1.21–1.34) |
| Diabetes | 0.93 (0.91–0.96) | 0.95 (0.90–1.00) |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 1.09 (1.02–1.17) | 1.08 (0.93–1.25) |
| Mental health condition | 0.98 (0.96–1.01) | 1.09 (1.04–1.14) |
| Long-term care residence | 0.29 (0.25–0.34) | 1.13 (0.58–2.21) |
| Primary care enrolment | ||
| Fee for service v. no provider | 0.83 (0.77–0.91) | 3.64 (3.18–4.17) |
| Capitation v. no provider | 0.76 (0.70–0.82) | 3.14 (2.77–3.55) |
| Enhanced fee for service v. no provider | 0.78 (0.72–0.84) | 2.99 (2.64–3.39) |
| Family Health Team v. no provider | 0.79 (0.73–0.85) | 3.65 (3.23–4.13) |
| Other v. no provider | 0.89 (0.78–1.03) | 4.75 (3.91–5.77) |
| Prescription drugs | 0.99 (0.98–0.99) | 1.01 (1.01–1.02) |
| Emergency department visits | 1.06 (1.05–1.08) | 1.16 (1.14–1.18) |
| Visits to general practitioner | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) |
| Visits to specialist | 0.95 (0.95–0.95) | 0.99 (0.99–1.00) |
| Visits to geriatrician | 0.80 (0.76–0.86) | 1.06 (0.89–1.26) |
| Home care visits | ||
| Nursing | 0.99 (0.99–1.00) | 1.01 (1.00–1.01) |
| Personal support | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) |
| Allied health care | 1.01 (1.00–1.02) | 1.01 (0.98–1.05) |
| Other | 0.94 (0.93–0.94) | 1.02 (1.01–1.04) |
| C-statistic | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| C-statistic (cross-validated) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
Note: CI = confidence interval, OR = odds ratio.
↵* See Appendix 2 for details on predictive accuracy.